Friday, March 28, 2008
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Andres Agostini is a Researching Analyst & Consultant & Management Practitioner & Original Thinker & E-Author & Institutional Coach. Topics subject of in-depth study & practice are Science, Technology, Corporate Strategy, Business, Management, “Transformative Risk Management,” Professional Futurology, & Mind-Expansion Developmental Techniques. He hereby shares his thoughts, ideas, reflections, findings, & suggestions with total independence of thinking and without mental reservation.
SMALL SAMPLE
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 26
Don’t worry about being surprised by the unexpectable. Just carry on expecting the unexpectable, regardless of the implicated chaos. Create instability as the essence of your strategy. Keep in mind: a more volatile external environment requires a less stable internal world. Seek out substitutes and opportunities to increase productivity by measuring the mass used in your business today, and getting it to decrease every year. Respond with more rapid and varied adaptation.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 27
Conduct thousands of tests of products, prices, features, packages, marketing channels, credit policies, account management, customer service, collections, and retention. Make informed but subjective judgments. Push ahead before the competition could catch up. Seize the opportunity--even when not really prepared.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 28
Empower talented people. Accelerate talented people very quickly, because that's where you get the value. Place bets on future values. Cross boundaries, change jobs, and form new teams to meet evolving needs. Align with the business. Use good economic judgment. Be flexible. And be empathetic to your colleagues.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 29
It's okay to break the rules in the right way. Going around doing randomly disconnected things. Develop all the peripheral relationships you need to be effective organizationally. Manage the connections rather than the structure. Also know how to hybridize.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 30
Reach out to others with corresponding roles across the organization to learn and share ideas. Move around and support your colleagues when needed. Enable innovation by bringing DIVERSE elements together. Without these kinds of connections, DIVERSITY has little inherent value.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 31
Empower others and yourself by the whole chaotic percolation of ideas at the bottom of the organization. Bear in mind: Empirical evidence, based on small tests, always carried the day. Attract very bright people with initial proof of concept, then plug them into your organizational structure.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 32
Maintain common interfaces and cross-functional capabilities that allow work to flow and value chains to talk to teach other. Harvest the idea, then propagate it wildly before the mimicry of competition sets in.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 33
Employ diversification to spread their risks. Be willing to take the risk of shaping the future according to your own design. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, but don put all your eggs in one basket. Beware of this: Discontinuities, irregularities, and volatilities seem to be proliferating. Remember: Without risks, life poses no mystery.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 34
Seed, select, amplify, and destabilize the situation are the two management ideas for accelerated evolution. Don’t expect a perfect feedback system in a volatile environment. Don’t be excellent at doing; be excellent at changing, too.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 35
Explore the extremes, where nonlinear effects kick in. Sometimes, the extremes contain pleasant, nonlinear surprises. Imagine things that engender loyalty towards your organization. Through experimentation with detailed measurements and discipline and logical analysis, you find profitable innovations.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 36
Test things at the bottom of the organization that lead to big insights. Test, experiment, measure, and optimize. Institute hard-core analytic optimization. Architect your entire infrastructure to operate in real time. Let your account-management programs to be driven by experimentation.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 37
Dream up programs that might be of value to customers, and then test them. A successful test often triggers other behaviors, and you should follow these with more new offers. Shift to roll-out, because ah of a sudden your competition get a preponderance of one product of my organization that they've never seen before.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 38
Have a free flow of resources to where the value is. Rather than penalizing people who fail, praise them for their commitment and intentions. Reinforce the tolerance of risk and failure. Revise your best practices. Observe, orient, decide, act. First to fight now means first to learn.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 39
Fly great distances, meet new people, and encounter new ideas. Have a freedom of thought, the passion for experimentation, and the desire to imagine your future. Believe in not commonly believed opinions.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 40
It's about getting more from less. That's the true road to wealth. Focus on changes, challenges, and opportunities. Earn more while spending less. Reach a higher level of output. Pursue profit maximization. Remain competitive. Adapt to revolutionary innovations in technology and business efficiency the soonest. Craft value creating relationships. Establish guidelines, offer insight, and provide inspiration. Identify, analyze, and maximize your learning opportunities.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 42
Evaluate, identify, select, negotiate, manage, turn around, govern, implement, anticipate, and ensure success. Generate immediate cost savings. Realize a cash infusion from the sale of assets. Relieve the burden of staffing.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 43
Be freer to direct your attention to the more strategic aspects of your job. Keep your logic compelling.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 44
Destabilize in order to live closer to the edge of chaos. This means being agile enough to change as the environment does, but not so fluid as to lose its defining structure. Walk the walk as well as talking the talk of the Adaptive Enterprise.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 45
A lesson: The word adaptation describes the interaction between an organism and its environment.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 46
TO BEAR IN MIND! But one thing an evolutionary and ecological perspective tells us for sure: If several major forces are at work, they will not progress in separate straight lines --they will interact chaotically, creating unforeseen changes.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 47
Be willing to adapt very quickly, to pounce on an opportunity when you see it, to change the organization, to think about new developments, and to be always very open to any change in any direction.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 48
You have to be the equivalent of selective forces in nature, which calls for a willingness to let people in the organization to explore, to flourish and develop.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 49
Separate to promote independence, selfish thinking, and local solutions. Learn from each other’s mistakes and successes and you’ll get better and be able to operate at a much more accelerated pace, based upon the knowledge that has been transferred.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 50
Get your organization into a massive amount of knowledge and experience that creates a great breeding stock for subsequent ventures.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 51
Explore continually evolving technology and applications, while also creating different units to exploit commercial opportunities not always closely related to the founding capabilities.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 52
Replenish customers on demand. Take the client as an agent, and create an agent-based point of view.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 77
Seek the hidden. De-learn the learned. Make the covert overt. Implement ipso facto.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 78
De-peril your risks. Empower your financial risks to work for you. Hire them; get resigned from your bricks-and-mortars (a future not plausible).
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 79
Plan, lead, and manage.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 80
Understand your business depth today. Develop better ways to service your enterprise in the future.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 81
Before "outsourcing," NOW "Worldwide Sourcing' or "Competitive Sourcing."
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 82
Have fewer staff and run a lean operation. Favor those who leverage third-party relationships that don't tie up capital and consume resources.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 83
Strategically enhance your organization's core competencies. Address any outstanding issue with your employees, unions, and the community. Find the lowest total cost or best value.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 84
Recognize impact on internal operations. Capture the big picture.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 85
Track benefits, realize quick wins, and motivate critical stakeholders to remain committed.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 86
Early anticipation of changes can drastically reduce the time and cost of addressing them. Seek the quick win (that long forgotten in an ignored --but mission-critical-- flank).
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 87
Research assiduously which of the available external market capabilities fit best with your strategic objectives.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 88
Articulate these management principles more precisely, implement them more systematically, and rely less on the intuition of a few gifted leaders. Don't write strategy, GROW IT. Don't think in terms of maximizing your share of the market but of maximizing your share of experience. Build an innovation laboratory capable of creating a steady stream of the new ideas to stay ahead of the competition.
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 89
Differentiate or die. Be mindful that improvisation is too important to be left to the fortuitous. Consider that life is sustainable through the unperceived and those universal laws that are unknown to us. Continuity is over-dead; it hasn't yet reincarnated. History will be reshaped by the sudden and sharp change, namely "frenzy volatility."
SUCCESS PRINCIPLE / TENET # 90
Launch your employees with confidence into a somewhat chaotic environment, knowing that they will direct themselves toward optimal performance to success. Instill in the staff a loose, self-organizing culture--in search of new opportunities. Motivate and develop others to learn to change to prevail. Sharing ideas, "...an eye is not an eye because you see it; an eye is an eye because it sees you..."--Antonio Machado.
Openness and the Metaverse Singularity
The four worlds of the Metaverse Roadmap could also represent four pathways to a Singularity. But they also represent potential dangers. An "open-access Singularity" may be the answer. The people who have embraced the possibility of a singularity should be working at least as hard on making possible a global inclusion of interests as they do on making the singularity itself happen, says Jamais Cascio.
Originally presented at Singularity Summit 2007, September 8, 2007. Reprinted with permission on KurzweilAI.net November 7, 2007.
I was reminded, earlier this year, of an observation made by polio vaccine pioneer Dr. Jonas Salk. He said that the most important question we can ask of ourselves is, "are we being good ancestors?"
This is a particularly relevant question for those of us here at the
It's not an easy question to answer, in part because it can be an uncomfortable examination. But this question becomes especially challenging when we recognize that even small choices matter. It's not just the multi-billion dollar projects and unmistakably world-altering ideas that will change the lives of our descendants. Sometimes, perhaps most of the time, profound consequences can arise from the most prosaic of topics.
Which is why I'm going to talk a bit about video games.
Well, not just video games, but video games and cameraphones and Google Earth and the myriad day-to-day technologies that, individually, may attract momentary notice, but in combination, may actually offer us a new way of grappling with the world. And just might, along the way, help to shape the potential for a safe Singularity.
Earlier this year, I co-authored a document that I know some of you in the audience have seen: the Metaverse Roadmap Overview. In this work, along with my colleagues John Smart and Jerry Paffendorf, I sketch out four scenarios of how a combination of forces driving the development of immersive, richly connected information technologies may play out over the next decade. But what has struck me more recently about the Roadmap scenarios is that the four worlds could also represent four pathways to a Singularity. Not just in terms of the technologies, but—more importantly—in terms of the social and cultural choices we make while building those technologies.
The four metaverse worlds emerged from a relatively commonplace scenario structure. We arrayed two spectra of possibility against each other, thereby offering four outcomes. Specialists sometimes refer to this as the "four-box" method, and it's a simple way of forcing yourself to think through different possibilities.
This is probably the right spot to insert my first disclaimer: scenarios are not predictions, they're provocations. They're ways of describing different future possibilities not to demonstrate what will happen, but to suggest what could happen. They offer a way to test out strategies and assumptions—what would the world look like if we undertook a given action in these four futures?
To construct our scenario set we selected two themes likely to shape the ways in which the Metaverse unfolds: the spectrum of technologies and applications ranging from augmentation tools that add new capabilities to simulation systems that model new worlds; and the spectrum ranging from intimate technologies, those that focus on identity and the individual, to external technologies, those that provide information about and control over the world around you. These two spectra collide and contrast to produce four scenarios.
The first, Virtual Worlds, emerges from the combination of Simulation and Intimate technologies. These are immersive representations of an environment, one where the user has a presence within that reality, typically as an avatar of some sort. Today, this means World of Warcraft, Second Life, Sony Home and the like.
Over the course of the Virtual Worlds scenario, we'd see the continued growth and increased sophistication of immersive networked environments, allowing more and more people to spend substantial amounts of time engaged in meaningful ways online. The ultimate manifestation of this scenario would be a world in which the vast majority of people spend essentially all of their work and play time in virtual settings, whether because the digital worlds are supremely compelling and seductive, or because the real world has suffered widespread environmental and economic collapse.
The next scenario, Mirror Worlds, comes from the intersection of Simulation and Externally-focused technologies. These are information-enhanced virtual models or “reflections” of the physical world, usually embracing maps and geo-locative sensors. Google Earth is probably the canonical present-day version of an early Mirror World.
While undoubtedly appealing to many individuals, in my view, the real power of the Mirror World setting falls to institutions and organizations seeking to have a more complete, accurate and nuanced understanding of the world's transactions and underlying systems. The capabilities of Mirror World systems is enhanced by a proliferation of sensors and remote data gathering, giving these distributed information platforms a global context. Geospatial, environmental and economic patterns could be easily represented and analyzed. Undoubtedly, political debates would arise over just who does, and does not, get access to these models and databases.
Thirdly, Augmented Reality looks at the collision of Augmentation and External technologies. Such tools would enhance the external physical world for the individual, through the use of location-aware systems and interfaces that process and layer networked information on top of our everyday perceptions.
Augmented Reality makes use of the same kinds of distributed information and sensory systems as Mirror Worlds, but does so in a much more granular, personal way. The AR world is much more interested in depth than in flows: the history of a given product on a store shelf; the name of the person waving at you down the street (along with her social network connections and reputation score); the comments and recommendations left by friends at a particular coffee shop, or bar, or bookstore. This world is almost vibrating with information, and is likely to spawn as many efforts to produce viable filtering tools as there are projects to assign and recognize new data sources.
Lastly, we have Lifelogging, which brings together Augmentation and Intimate technologies. Here, the systems record and report the states and life histories of objects and users, enhancing observation, recall, and communication. I've sometimes talked about one version of this as the "participatory panopticon."
Here, the observation tools of an Augmented Reality world get turned inward, serving as an adjunct memory. Lifelogging systems are less apt to be attuned to the digital comments left at a bar than to the spoken words of the person at the table next to you. These tools would be used to capture both the practical and the ephemeral, like where you left your car in the lot and what it was that made your spouse laugh so much. Such systems have obvious political implications, such as catching a candidate's gaffe or a bureaucrat's corruption. But they also have significant personal implications: what does the world look like when we know that everything we say or do is likely to be recorded?
This underscores a deep concern that crosses the boundaries of all four scenarios: trust.
"Trust" encompasses a variety of key issues: protecting privacy and being safely visible; information and transaction security; and, critically, honesty and transparency. It wouldn't take much effort to turn all four of these scenarios into dystopias. The common element of the malevolent versions of these societies would be easy to spot: widely divergent levels of control over and access to information, especially personal information. The ultimate importance of these scenarios isn't just the technologies they describe, but the societies that they create.
So what do these tell us about a Singularity?
Second disclaimer time: although I worked with John and Jerry on the original Metaverse scenarios, they should not be blamed for any of what follows.
Across the four Metaverse scenarios, we can see a variety of ways in which the addition of an intelligent system would enhance the user's experience. Dumb non-player characters and repetitive bots in virtual worlds, for example, might be replaced by virtual people essentially indistinguishable from characters controlled by human users. Efforts to make sense of the massive flows of information in a Mirror World setting would be enormously enhanced with the assistance of sophisticated machine analyst. Augmented Reality environments would thrive with truly intelligent agent systems, knowing what to filter and what to emphasize. In a lifelogging world, an intelligent companion in one's mobile or wearable system would be needed in order to figure out how to index and catalog memories in a personally meaningful way; it's likely that such a system would need to learn how to emulate your own thought processes, becoming a virtual shadow.
None of these systems would truly need to be self-aware, self-modifying intelligent machines—but in time, each could lead to that point.
But if the potential benefits of these scenaric worlds would be enhanced with intelligent information technology, so too would the dangers. Unfortunately, avoiding dystopian outcomes is a challenge that may be trickier than some may expect—and is one with direct implications for all of our hopes and efforts for bringing about a future that would benefit human civilization, not end it.
It starts with a basic premise: software is a human construction. That's obvious when considering code written by hand over empty pizza boxes and stacks of paper coffee cups. But even the closest process we have to entirely computer-crafted software—emergent, evolutionary code—still betrays the presence of a human maker: evolutionary algorithms may have produced the final software, and may even have done so in ways that remain opaque to human observers, but the goals of the evolutionary process, and the selection mechanism that drives the digital evolution towards these goals, are quite clearly of human origin.
To put it bluntly, software, like all technologies, is inherently political. Even the most disruptive technologies, the innovations and ideas that can utterly transform society, carry with them the legacies of past decisions, the culture and history of the societies that spawned them. Code inevitably reflects the choices, biases and desires of its creators.
This will often be unambiguous and visible, as with digital rights management. It can also be subtle, as with operating system routines written to benefit one application over its competitors (I know some of you in this audience are old enough to remember "DOS isn't done 'til Lotus won't run"). Sometimes, code may be written to reflect an even more dubious bias, as with the allegations of voting machines intentionally designed to make election-hacking easy for those in the know. Much of the time, however, the inclusion of software elements reflecting the choices, biases and desires of its creators will be utterly unconscious, the result of what the coders deem obviously right.
We can imagine parallel examples of the ways in which metaverse technologies could be shaped by deeply-embedded cultural and political forces: the obvious, such as lifelogging systems that know to not record digitally-watermarked background music and television; the subtle, such as augmented reality filters that give added visibility to sponsors, and make competitors harder to see; the malicious, such as mirror world networks that accelerate the rupture between the information haves and have-nots—or, perhaps more correctly, between the users and the used; and, again and again, the unintended-but-consequential, such as virtual world environments that make it impossible to build an avatar that reflects your real or desired appearance, offering only virtual bodies sprung from the fevered imagination of perpetual adolescents.
So too with what we today talk about as a "singularity." The degree to which human software engineers actually get their hands dirty with the nuts & bolts of AI code is secondary to the basic condition that humans will guide the technology's development, making the choices as to which characteristics should be encouraged, which should be suppressed or ignored, and which ones signify that "progress" has been made. Whatever the degree to which post-singularity intelligences would be able to reshape their own minds, we have to remember that the first generation will be our creations, built with interests and abilities based upon our choices, biases and desires.
This isn't intrinsically bad; emerging digital minds that reflect the interests of their human creators is a lever that gives us a real chance to make sure that a "singularity" ultimately benefits us. But it holds a real risk. Not that people won't know that there's a bias: we've lived long enough with software bugs and so-called "computer errors" to know not to put complete trust in the pronouncements of what may seem to be digital oracles. The risk comes from not being able to see what that bias might be.
Many of us rightly worry about what might happen with "Metaverse" systems that analyze our life logs, that monitor our every step and word, that track our behavior online so as to offer us the safest possible society—or best possible spam. Imagine the risks associated with trusting that when the creators of emerging self- aware systems say that they have our best interests in mind, they mean the same thing by that phrase that we do.
For me, the solution is clear. Trust depends upon transparency. Transparency, in turn, requires openness.
We need an Open Singularity.
At minimum, this means expanding the conversation about the shape that a singularity might take beyond a self-selected group of technologists and philosophers. An "open access" singularity, if you will. Dr. Kurzweil's books are a solid first step, but the public discourse around the singularity concept needs to reflect a wider diversity of opinion and perspective.
If the singularity is as likely and as globally, utterly transformative as many here believe, it would be profoundly unethical to make it happen without including all of the stakeholders in the process—and we are all stakeholders in the future.
World-altering decisions made without taking our vast array of interests into account are intrinsically flawed, likely fatally so. They would become catalysts for conflicts, potentially even the triggers for some of the "existential threats" that may arise from transformative technologies. Moreover, working to bring in diverse interests has to happen as early in the process as possible. Balancing and managing a global diversity of needs won't be easy, but it will be impossible if democratization is thought of as a bolt-on addition at the end.
Democracy is a messy process. It requires give-and-take, and an acknowledgement that efficiency is less important than participation.
We may not have an answer now as to how to do this, how to democratize the singularity. If this is the case—and I suspect that it is—then we have added work ahead of us. The people who have embraced the possibility of a singularity should be working at least as hard on making possible a global inclusion of interests as they do on making the singularity itself happen. All of the talk of "friendly AI" and "positive singularities" will be meaningless if the only people who get to decide what that means are the few hundred of us in this room.
My preferred pathway would be to "open source" the singularity, to bring in the eyes and minds of millions of collaborators to examine and co-create the relevant software and models, seeking out flaws and making the code more broadly reflective of a variety of interests. Such a proposal is not without risks. Accidents will happen, and there will always be those few who wish to do others harm. But the same is true in a world of proprietary interests and abundant secrecy, and those are precisely the conditions that can make effective responses to looming disasters difficult. With an open approach, you have millions of people who know how dangerous technologies work, know the risks that they hold, and are committed to helping to detect, defend and respond to crises. That these are, in Bill Joy's term, "knowledge-enabled" dangers means that knowledge also enables our defense; knowledge, in turn, grows faster as it becomes more widespread. This is not simply speculation; we've seen time and again, from digital security to the global response to SARS, that open access to information-laden risks ultimately makes them more manageable.
The metaverse roadmap offers a glimpse of what the next decade might hold, but does so recognizing that the futures it describes are not end-points, but transitions. The choices we make today about commonplace tools and everyday technologies will shape what's possible, and what's imaginable, with the generations of technologies to come. If the singularity is in fact near, the fundamental tools of information, collaboration and access will be our best hope for making it happen in a way that spreads its benefits and minimizes its dangers—in short, making it happen in a way that lets us be good ancestors.
If we're willing to try, we can create a future, a singularity, that's wise, democratic and sustainable—a future that's open. Open as in transparent. Open as in participatory. Open as in available to all. Open as in filled with an abundance of options.
The shape of tomorrow remains in our grasp, and will be determined by the choices we make today. Choose wisely.
"The Russians are bent on world dominance, and they are rapidly acquiring the means to become the most powerful imperial nation the world has seen. The men in the Soviet Politburo do not have to worry about the ebb and flow of public opinion. They put guns before butter, while we put just about everything before guns."In response, the Soviet Defence Ministry newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) gave her the nickname "Iron Lady", which was soon publicised by Radio Moscow. She took delight in the name and it soon became associated with her image as having an unwavering and steadfast character. Her reaction to her other chief nickname, "Attila the Hen" (thought to have been coined by Tory grandee Sir Ian Gilmour) is unrecorded.
Where there is discord, may we bring harmony. Where there is error, may we bring truth. Where there is doubt, may we bring faith. And where there is despair, may we bring hope. |
Having consulted widely among my colleagues, I have concluded that the unity of the Party and the prospects of victory in a General Election would be better served if I stood down to enable Cabinet colleagues to enter the ballot for the leadership. I should like to thank all those in Cabinet and outside who have given me such dedicated support. |
...a single currency is about the politics of Europe, it is about a federal Europe by the back door. So I shall consider the proposal of the Honourable Member for Bolsover (Mr. Skinner). Now where were we? I am enjoying this." |
"conviction politician. I'm a conviction politician just like her".[46]
"I think we've been through a period where too many people have been given to understand that if they have a problem, it's the government's job to cope with it. 'I have a problem, I'll get a grant.' 'I'm homeless, the government must house me.' They're casting their problem on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first."[48]
"There will never be anybody else so compelling as Enoch Powell...He had a rare combination of qualities all founded on an unfaltering belief in God, an unshakable loyalty to family and friends and an unswerving devotion to our country"[55]
F U T U R E_ W I T H O U T _B O R D E R S !!!
Arlington, Virginia, USA
Openness and the Metaverse Singularity
By Jamais Cascio
The four worlds of the Metaverse Roadmap could also represent four pathways to a Singularity. But they also represent potential dangers. An "open-access Singularity" may be the answer. The people who ... (November 7th 2007)
What If the Singularity Does NOT Happen?
By Vernor Vinge
It's 2045 and nerds in old-folks homes are wandering around, scratching their heads, and asking plaintively, "But ... but, where's the Singularity?" Science fiction writer Vernor Vinge--who originated... (March 14th 2007)
Foreword to The Intelligent Universe
By Ray Kurzweil
The explosive nature of exponential growth means it may only take a quarter of a millennium to go from sending messages on horseback to saturating the matter and energy in our solar system with sublim... (February 2nd 2007)
[Click here to check out all The Singularity articles]
BREAKPOINT: terrorists vs. transhumanists
By Richard A. Clarke
Former counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke�s BREAKPOINT novel, set in the year 2012, is based on emerging technologies. "Globegrid," a high-speed global network, links supercomputers worldwide. Combi... (May 18th 2007)
Space Wars: The First Six Hours of World War III
By William B. Scott
Space Wars by Willliam Scott, Michael Coumatos, and William Birnes, Forge Books (April 17, 2007) describes how the first hours of World War III might play out in the year 2010. While fiction, it's bas... (April 17th 2007)
The Moon as backup drive for civilization
By KurzweilAI.net
Imaginative new ideas for using space to protect civilization against existential risks, such as killer asteroids, nuclear war, and global terrorism, are in the works. The public increasingly sees NAS... (September 24th 2006)
[Click here to check out all Dangerous Futures articles]
Why Language Is All Thumbs
By Chip Walter
Toolmaking not only resulted in tools, but also the reconfiguration of our brains so they comprehended the world on the same terms as our toolmaking hands interacted with it. With mirror neurons, some... (March 15th 2008)
AI Meets the Metaverse: Teachable AI Agents Living in Virtual Worlds
By Ben Goertzel
Online virtual worlds have the power to accelerate and catalyze the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI). As AGIs involved in this metaverse become progressively more intelligent from ... (October 18th 2007)
The Age of Virtuous Machines
By J. Storrs Hall
In the "hard takeoff" scenario, a psychopathic AI suddenly emerges at a superhuman level, achieving universal dominance. Hall suggests an alternative: we've gotten better because we've become smarter,... (June 1st 2007)
[Click here to check out all How to Build a Brain articles]
Gelernter, Kurzweil debate machine consciousness
By Rodney Brooks, Ray Kurzweil, and David Gelernter
Are we limited to building super-intelligent robotic "zombies" or will it be possible and desirable for us to build conscious, creative, volitional, perhaps even "spiritual" machines? David Gelernter ... (December 6th 2006)
Cyber Sapiens
By Chip Walter
...We will no longer be Homo sapiens, but Cyber sapiens--a creature part digital and part biological that will have placed more distance between its DNA and the destinies they force upon us than any o... (October 26th 2006)
Why We Can Be Confident of Turing Test Capability Within a Quarter Century
By Ray Kurzweil
The advent of strong AI (exceeding human intelligence) is the most important transformation this century will see, and it will happen within 25 years, says Ray Kurzweil, who will present this paper at... (July 13th 2006)
[Click here to check out all Will Machines Become Conscious? articles]
Bootstrapping our way to an ageless future
By Aubrey de Grey
Biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey expects many people alive today to live to 1000 years of age and to avoid age-related health problems even at that age. In this excerpt from his just-published,... (September 19th 2007)
Press ignores bias in study of multivitamins and prostate cancer
By Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman
In a recent paper reporting on the National Cancer Institute study of multivitamin use and the risk of prostate cancer, the NCI authors cited several possible bias factors. An analysis by Ray Kurzweil... (May 25th 2007)
Strategic Sustainable Brain
By Natasha Vita-More
The human brain faces a challenging future. To cope with accelerating nanotech- and biotech-based developments in an increasingly complex world, compete with emerging superintelligence, and maintain i... (March 31st 2006)
[Click here to check out all Living Forever articles]
How to Build a Virtual Human
By Peter Plantec
Virtual Humans is the first book with instructions on designing a "V-human," or synthetic person. Using the programs on the included CD, you can create animated computer characters who can speak, dial... (October 20th 2003)
Remarks about Tod Machover In Presenting the 2003 Ray Kurzweil Award of Technology in Music
By Ray Kurzweil
Ray Kurzweil presented the 2003 Ray Kurzweil Award of Technology in Music to Tod Machover at the Fourth Annual Telluride Tech Festival (August 8-10, 2003). The award was in recognition of Machover's p... (August 11th 2003)
Glitches Reloaded
By Peter B. Lloyd
In Matrix Reloaded, how can Neo fly and use telekinesis if the Matrix is supposed to a physics simulation? Peter Lloyd decodes this and other technical enigmas--reverse-engineering the design of the M... (June 2nd 2003)
[Click here to check out all Virtual Realities articles]
EGOGRAM 2007
By Sir Arthur C. Clarke
The Golden Age of space travel is still ahead of us. Over the next 50 years, thousands of people will gain access to the orbital realm -- and then, to the Moon and beyond, says Sir Arthur, 89.... (February 7th 2007)
I'm Confident About Energy, the Environment, Longevity, and Wealth; I'm Optimistic (But Not Necessarily Confident) Of the Avoidance Of Existential Downsides; And I'm Hopeful (But Not Necessarily Optimistic) About a Repeat Of 9-11 (Or Worse)
By Ray Kurzweil
Ray Kurzweil responds to John Brockman's The Edge Annual Question - 2007: WHAT ARE YOU OPTIMISTIC ABOUT? WHY? ... (February 4th 2007)
What the Future Will Bring
By Ray Kurzweil
"Follow your passion," Ray Kurzweil advised graduates in a commencement address on May 21 at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, one of the nation's earliest technological universities. "Creating knowled... (June 15th 2005)
[Click here to check out all Visions of the Future articles]
Response to 'The Singularity Is Always Near'
By Ray Kurzweil
In "The Singularity Is Always Near," an essay in The Technium, an online "book in progress," author Kevin Kelly critiques arguments on exponential growth made in Ray Kurzweil's book, The Singularity I... (May 4th 2006)
Wolfram and Kurzweil Roundtable Discussion
By Ray Kurzweil and Stephen Wolfram
"The most dramatic possibility is the universe started from a simple initial condition that had some simple geometrical symmetry. It might be the case that if we turn our telescope off to the west, an... (February 24th 2006)
Ray Kurzweil Responds to Richard Eckersley
By Ray Kurzweil
"Eckersley bases his romanticized idea of ancient life on communication and the relationships fostered by communication. But much of modern technology is directed at just this basic human need."... (February 3rd 2006)
[Click here to check out all Point/Counterpoint articles]
Engines of Creation 2.0: Molecular Engineering: An Approach to the Development of General Capabilities for Molecular Manipulation
By K. Eric Drexler
Developing the ability to design protein molecules will make it possible to construct molecular machines. These can then build second-generation machines that can perform extremely general synthesis o... (March 20th 2007)
Engines of Creation 2.0: Advice To Aspiring Nanotechnologists
By K. Eric Drexler
It makes no practical sense to try to build a molecular assembler today. But we can build enabling technologies today, including protein engineering, general macromolecular engineering, and micromanip... (March 15th 2007)
Engines of Creation 2.0: Letter From Author
By K. Eric Drexler
Engines of Creation in 1986 inspired an explosion of interest in nanotechnology. Version 2.0 updates this classic book, including new concepts for molecular manufacturing and new uses for nanotech, s... (March 15th 2007)
[Click here to check out all Nanotechnology articles]
CNN: Device opens the world for blind
The Kurzweil-National Federation of the Blind Reader is featured on CNN's VIDEO page. More info: KNFBReader.com.
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Yahoo continued to reject Microsoft's $44.6 billion unsolicited bid for the company Monday. The Internet company is not opposed to some sort of financial deal, but the current offer is too low, chairman Roy Bostock and chief executive Jerry Yang said in a letter responding to Microsoft chief Steve Ballmer. full story
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It appears that the scale and seriousness of climate change is at last being grasped. In 2008, we stand on the brink of a historic consensus, not only between scientists, but in the corridors of political power and in boardrooms across the globe.
updated Tue April 1, 2008
Since it became a viable energy resource around 20 years ago, wind power has emerged as a leading renewable technology.
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Address by the President of the
Madame Speaker of the House of Lords,
Mr Speaker of the House of Commons,
Prime Minister,
Ladies and gentlemen, Members of Parliament,
For the President of the
It is indeed here, within these walls, that modern political life was born. Without this Parliament, would parliamentary democracy have ever existed in the world? Hasn’t this parliamentary practice, begun in this place, become the best guarantee against tyranny?
The history of this institution today influences most contemporary political regimes. This Parliament has become what it is through the fight for the protection of essential individual freedoms and the principle of the consent to taxation. These two fundamental conquests, which this Parliament was the first in the world to achieve, are still today the cornerstones of all our democracies. It is here that parliamentarians have gradually developed what is a party, an electoral programme and finally a majority.
It is through these institutions that the
I profoundly believe in the strength of politics. I profoundly believe in the ability of politics to improve the fate of the peoples. This is the whole purpose of politics.
Institutions, however much you upgrade them, exist only to serve the people. The strength of the British people has always been that of a free people who take their own decisions and are ready for the greatest sacrifices to defend their freedom.
How many invincible armadas has your nation defeated? How many battles has it won which everyone thought lost? Your nation has succeeded in taking up so many challenges which seemed out of reach precisely because it quite simply was convinced that its cause was right, because it had faith in itself, in its values, because in all circumstances it has demonstrated an unfailing determination and courage. In this respect, the Battle of Britain was a magnificent achievement.
In the hearts and minds, even of those who fought against it, your nation has stood out through its respect of the Other, its tolerance, its way of life, its freedom of spirit which has been forged throughout a long history full of sound and fury. In all circumstances, it has succeeded in remaining itself, continued thinking for itself, and that was enough for it to embody in the eyes of many a human and political ideal.
So many peoples of its former colonies have remained attached to it precisely because they had gained their freedom in the very name of the principles whose greatness it had shown them.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Members of Parliament
If there is one people with whom you have forged exceptional ties, it’s definitely the French people. Our two countries’ destinies have been closely intertwined for nearly 1,000 years. Since William the Conqueror set off from
We have together laid, each in our own way, the foundations of the union between State and nation, which
Our nations fought one another for a long time, until the day they understood that what brought them together was more important than what divided them, that they had interests to defend and, even more important still, common values to defend together.
This alliance had a name: the "Entente cordiale". After centuries of hostility and suspicion, it led them to confront together the most terrible ordeals. Suffering and misfortune shared in the brotherhood of arms engendered between us a profound respect.
To those who want to create opposition between the cultures and traditions of the Germanic, Latin and Anglo-Saxon worlds, I want to say that we all share what’s most important: the same humanism, the same idea of man and what we call the Western civilization, what we call progress, democracy, freedom are, going beyond all the ups and downs of history, the fruits of centuries of uninterrupted dialogue between our philosophers, our politicians and our peoples.
Tomorrow as yesterday, we shall defend them, constantly reminding ourselves of what unites us and not what divides us.
She will never forget the English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish blood mixed with the French blood in the mud of the trenches.
She will never forget the welcome the British people gave General de Gaulle and Free France.
She will never forget the heroic resistance of the British people without which all would have been lost.
She will never forget the fine young people who came from all over the British Empire and laid down their lives on the
As the last century’s wars have shown: like two brothers, what the French people and the British people can accomplish together is far greater than what they can achieve separately.
This brotherhood has gradually grown stronger as
But this is no longer what’s most important. Today, if we want them to, these differences can enable us to complement each other. What’s important is that
Progressively, over the past decades,
Perhaps what we most admire is this ability your country has always had to change to embrace and often steal a march on world progress, while remaining true to itself.
This is how the United Kingdom has carried out of her own accord, without hesitating, many revolutions which so many other peoples have decided to do only when forced to. But she has never been tempted to opt for the tabula rasa. She has never denied either her history or her identify. All through her history she has changed only to be able to remain herself. And it has been in the full awareness and full assurance of what she is that she has always found the strength and the boldness to change.
The
This path is that of reforms to restore the value of effort, encourage innovation, the spirit of enterprise and sense of personal responsibility.
This path is also that of the modernization of central government administration and public services.
The principles allowing the challenges of globalization to be dealt with successfully on one side of the Channel must allow these challenges to be dealt with equally successfully on the other.
The vital objective for France, who like the
One firm belief has inspired my whole political life and driven me since the French entrusted me with the responsibility of heading the State: I wasn’t elected to bow to the inevitable. Moreover, I don’t believe that anything is inevitable. I was elected to create opportunities, to change
In a world which has become incredibly dynamic and creative, it is by mobilizing all our strengths, all our energies and all our talents that our nations will maintain their standing and find their full place. This is why I say yes both to globalization and to protection for the workers, yes both to free trade and to defending European interests, yes both to the market and to a judicious policy to help strategic sectors, and yes, finally, both to the Single European Market and to common policies.
In the space of one generation, globalization has taken a new turn. After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of communism, it had been thought that history was going to end in the global triumph of democracy and the market.
With the return of friction between different identities and the return of religious fundamentalism, we now know that history hasn’t ended and that it is often tragic.
Yesterday condemned by a whole school of thinking, nations and States must today find an answer to the concerns and at times even anxieties of our fellow citizens. The world is going through huge changes and the nations need facilitators to take them from one era to another. This is the role our two countries must set themselves.
Globalization, which had brought so many answers, opened up so much hope for so many people who previously thought themselves condemned to poverty, has generated new questions, brought different forms of suffering which call for radically new remedies.
The responsibility for finding new forms of civilization to counter all the forces of destruction lies with the democracies.
It is for us, together, to invent these new forms.
In the face of all the completely new problems which are going to have to be resolved, of all the new rules which are going to have to be devised, the
By putting our forces together and with a shared determination, we can contribute to the emergence of a new globalization, promoting freedom and equity, one which is more responsible and fairer.
The truth is that to be equal to their responsibilities, our two countries today need one another.
On behalf of the French people, I have come to invite the British people to write with us a new page of our common history, that of a new Franco-British brotherhood. A brotherhood for the twenty-first century.
What
Let’s discuss together, decide together, and act together. Everything justifies it: our common status as permanent members of the Security Council, our responsibilities as nuclear powers, the influence we each exert in a part of the world, our common membership of the European Union and our passionate commitment to democracy and freedom.
Our countries have comparable influence and strengths.
To forestall the danger of the clash of civilizations, the world needs our two old nations who are aware of the depth of history and know the importance of the long term when it comes to understanding the feelings of the peoples.
The world needs two old nations like ours, who long ago gave up dreams of conquest and domination, but have retained from their age-old experience an incomparable knowledge of the world.
If the
If the
If the
If the United Kingdom and France together reflect on the future of financial capitalism, if, together, they express the need for it to be reformed so that the risks are more accurately assessed, so that entrepreneurs once again take precedence over speculators, so the global economy does not continue to rest on a mountain of debts, who will dare to refuse to heed them?
If the
The United Kingdom and France have both opted resolutely for nuclear energy precisely because they have understood that now, as never before, it was the energy of the future, together assert the incomparable advantages of this energy for combating climate change and guaranteeing the security of supplies, then this argument will have a new reach and force.
If the
*
Ladies and gentlemen,
Members of Parliament,
What we do together will be wholly meaningful and effective only if we do it first of all with
Whenever
In the midst of the emerging powers which are gradually taking on their full role on the global stage, our two countries will go on influencing the world’s destiny within a Europe which has come together.
The European Union is our common achievement, one of peace, prosperity and democracy. An unprecedented adventure in the history of mankind: after centuries of wars, deaths and suffering in which
No one will ever forget that the first great voice which rose up after the war to call on
35 years ago, the
Today, more than ever before, Europe needs the
For this no one is asking the
That would mean asking her to give up being herself. That would above all deprive Europe of the most valuable asset the
Since
The truth is that at the beginning of the twenty-first century our old European nations can hope to play a role worthy of them only if they know how to act together.
The European Union is our nations’ most remarkable achievement of the past half century.
We have succeeded, in a few decades, in uniting in peace, prosperity and democracy, nations which had always fought each other.
In today’s Europe, we, France and the
Both our countries want a Europe which respects national identities, a
Both our countries want a
For too long, we Europeans have devoted our energy to institutional debates which divided us instead of bringing us together. The Lisbon Treaty puts an end, for a long time, to the clashes of the past: it reforms the operation of the European Union, clearly turning its back on any constitutional pretensions.
From now on,
On these issues, which will be at the heart of the French Presidency in the second half of this year, the
The
This is the issue at the heart of the negotiation which has opened within the EU. The Commission’s proposal implements the commitments we all signed up to last year, at the March European Council. The question is knowing whether we will be ready for the history-changing event of 2009 in
The
The
***
Ladies and gentlemen,
Members of Parliament,
It is often said that the
This new Franco-British brotherhood which I am calling for is essential in a
Of course, for we French, Franco-German friendship is one of the cornerstones of European reconciliation. I am convinced that in today’s
Ladies and gentlemen,
Members of Parliament,
Our two countries have an important place in the institutions that emerged after World War II: the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. These institutions must be reformed to make them fairer, stronger and more legitimate. The same applies to the G8 which must be opened up and gradually enlarged to become a G13 or a G14 so it more accurately reflects the new balance in the world. These are major issues because the role of these institutions, these fora, is more essential than ever in a world that is both globalized and subject to tensions jeopardizing peace in the world, and to challenges bringing into question the very future of mankind. Our two countries have the same analysis and are equally resolved on all these issues. I subscribe to everything my friend, Gordon Brown, said in the visionary speech he gave in
Together, our two countries are determined to remain engaged, side-by-side, with all our allies in
Together, our two countries can make a major contribution to peace between Israelis and Palestinians. We can’t accept seeing dashed the hope born at the conferences in
Together, our two countries are determined, with the whole international community, to put a stop to
Together, our two countries are resolved to do everything possible to end the tragedy in
Together, they will continue to be the most determined advocates for
Together, we will plead for human rights, and respect for cultural and religious identity. This is the message the United Kingdom and France conveyed to the Chinese authorities at the beginning of the tragic events in Tibet, emphasizing that there will be a solution, within the framework of Chinese sovereignty, only through dialogue between the Dalai Lama and the Beijing government.
Yes, on all these issues,
* * *
We have the same vision of the future of the world and the same resolve to act, from the reform of international organizations to action to address global warming. We have the same commitment to peace and security.
The nature of the challenges has changed, but what has not changed is the need for our two great nations to stand shoulder to shoulder to help shape the world.
More than ever, the time has come, I believe, for the French and British peoples to carry out a profoundly political act: to put behind us our old rivalries so as to build a future in which we will be stronger because we are together.
May a French president, whose youthful dreams were often inspired by
It will remain etched in my memory and my heart.
Long live Franco-British friendship!
Long live the
Long live France!
Source: http://www.ambafrance-uk.org/President-Sarkozy-s-speech-to,10414.html
WHO IS ANDY AGOSTINI?
“Put simply, an inspired, determined soul, with an audacious style of ingrained womb-to-tomb thinking from the monarchy of originality, who starvingly seeks and seeks and seeks —in real-time—the yet unimagined futures in diverse ways, contexts, and approaches, originated in the FUTURE. A knowledge-based, pervasive rebellious, ‘type A Prima Donna’, born out of extraterrestrial protoplasm, who is on a rampant mission to (cross) research science (state of the art from the avant-garde) progressively, envision, and capture a breakthrough foresight of what is/what might be/what should be, still to come while he marshals his ever-practicing, inquisitive future-driven scenarios, via his Lines of Practice and from the intertwined, intersected, chaotically frenzy stances that combine both subtlety and brute force with the until now overwhelmingly unthinkable.”
Andres Agostini
www.AndyBelieves.blogspot.com
11:10 p.m. (GMT / UTC)
Monday, March 24, 2008